Quantifying the Relative Contribution of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Runoff Variations in the Central Part of Tajikistan in Central Asia

Quantifying the relative contribution of climate change and anthropogenic activities to runoff alterations are essential for sustainable management water resources in Central Asian countries. In Kofarnihon River Basin (KRB) Asia, both changing conditions known have caused changes hydrological cycle. Therefore, quantifying net influence is a challenge. This study applied original modified Mann–Kendall trend test, including Sen’s slope Pettitt’s double cumulative curve, elasticity methods. These methods were determine historical trends, magnitude points temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, from 1950 2016. addition, contributions KRB evaluated. The analysis showed significant increasing annual temperature while precipitation an insignificant decreasing during 1950–2016 time period. point occurred 1986 upstream region 1991 downstream region. Further, series (1950–2016) separated into prior impacted period (1950–1986 1950–1991) post (1987–2016 1992–2016) regions, respectively. During period, contributed 87.96% 12.04% 7.53% 92.47% KRB. results that changes, played dominant role (97.78%) impacts factor (87.96%). land-use type was by construction land, which area 248.63 km2 1990 increased 685.45 (175.69%) 2015. findings suggest it adopt effective steps development ecological, hydrological, social order Asia.